National presidential primary elections have begun : With just under nine months remaining until the pivotal general election that will determine the next President of the United States, the 2024 primary season is now in full swing. Commencing on Jan. 15, Iowa marked the initiation of six months of primary and caucus elections, shaping the trajectory that will decide whether incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face off again in the 2024 presidential election.
Iowa is one of five states choosing a caucus system over the more common primary system. On election day, registered political party members convened across the state to deliberate and cast votes for their party’s candidates. The Iowa Republican Caucus unfolded just one week after former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie withdrew from the race.
Trump secured a resounding victory in the state, claiming 51% of the vote, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 21.2%, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 19.1%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 7.7%. Subsequent to these results, Ramaswamy exited the race, followed by DeSantis a week later. The Iowa Democratic Caucus is scheduled to take place via mail-in ballots on March 5.
Adhering to a 1975 state law designating New Hampshire as the “first-in-the-nation,” the state held its primaries on Jan. 23. Trump emerged victorious on the Republican side with 54.3% of the vote, surpassing Haley’s 43.2%.
In the 2020 primary elections, Biden placed fifth in New Hampshire, leading to his request to rearrange the order of the 2024 state elections, prioritizing South Carolina – the first state he won in 2020 – before New Hampshire. Despite the Democratic National Committee approving this request, New Hampshire retained its earlier primary date. Consequently, Biden chose not to appear on the ballot but still secured a win with 63.9% of the vote, followed by U.S. Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips at 19.6%.
Biden’s inaugural primary victory occurred on Feb. 3 in South Carolina, where he claimed an impressive 96.2% of the vote, with author and politician Marianne Williamson at 2.1% and Phillips at 1.7%. The next Democratic primary is slated for Feb. 6 in Nevada, followed by the Nevada Republican Caucus on Feb. 8.
February is a pivotal month for shaping the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. States with the earliest primary elections are deemed to exert significant influence over the Republican and Democratic nominees. Criticism has been leveled at this sequential system over the years, citing the disproportionate influence of early state elections as potentially violating the democratic “one person, one vote” ideal.
Additionally, February witnesses a landmark U.S. Supreme Court appeal in response to Colorado’s decision to exclude Trump from the ballot. Oral arguments are scheduled for Feb. 8, and the decision could impact Trump’s national ballot eligibility.
Furthermore, February sets the stage for Super Tuesday on March 5, a contest where 15 states and one U.S. territory conduct their elections. The results will play a crucial role in determining whether Haley stands a chance of keeping pace with Trump on the national stage.